Study of Regorafenib for Urothelial Cancer Following Chemotherapy (UAB 1477)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 23% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-04-30, after 2015-05-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellrandomizationdialysispatienttransplant
Phrases that lowered it: subjectsaminotransferasewomentrialoncology group -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 73 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 19 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 199 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 19 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 199 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 12.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 73 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2142 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 864 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 88.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 22.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- regorafenib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Regorafenib Second Line Treatment of Metastatic or Advanced Upper GI Cancers NCT02241720 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
- Study of Regorafenib in Patients With Advanced Myeloid Malignancies NCT03042689 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
- Study of Colorectal Cancer Patients (Stage IIIC) With Either Regorafenib or Standard of Care (No Treatment) After Adjuvant FOLFOX NCT02425683 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
- Use of Regorafenib in Recurrent Epithelial Ovarian Cancer NCT02736305 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
- Regorafenib in Combination With TAS-102 in Subjects With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Who Have Progressed After Standard Therapy NCT03305913 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.