Safety and Biomarker Study of EPI-589 in Participants With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-02-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 29.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: to determinedialysis2afailurestroke
  Phrases that lowered it: open labelan opentriallabel studyupper
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 24 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 12 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety of Engensis in Participants With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis NCT04632225 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• A Long-Term Study in Patients With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) NCT00445172 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate, Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacodynamic (PD) Markers and Pharmacokinetics (PK) of AP-101 in Participants With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) NCT05039099 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial of SB-509 in Subjects With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) NCT00748501 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• A Study of TCD601 (Siplizumab) in Newly Diagnosed Adult Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) Patients NCT06453668 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.