Phase IIA Open Label Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of BL-8040 Followed by (hATG), Cyclosporine and Methyprednisolone in Adult Subjects With Aplastic Anemia or Hypoplastic Myelodysplastic Syndrome

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 32% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 25% of the time (96 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectpatientcancersubjects withtherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: open labeland safetyevaluate30efficacy and
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 30% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 12042 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 83.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy of BL-8040 for the Mobilization of Donor Hematopoietic Stem Cells and Allogeneic Transplantation in Patients With Advanced Hematological Malignancies NCT02639559 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• Study of Azacitidine in Combination With Pembrolizumab in R/R AML Patients and in Newly Diagnosed Older Patients NCT02845297 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Treatment With Acalabrutinib Post Blood or Marrow Transplantation in Subjects With Mantle Cell Lymphoma NCT04402138 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess OPB-31121 in Advanced Leukemias or Myelodysplastic Syndromes NCT01029509 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
• Treatment of MDS/AML Patients With an Impending Hematological Relapse With AZA or ATA and Pevonedistat NCT04712942 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.