Study of Idarubicin, Cytarabine, and Nivolumab in Patients With High-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) and Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-05-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chemotherapypatients mustventricularof childbearingpotential
  Phrases that lowered it: psoriasisamldrugsautoimmunesuspected
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 27.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 171 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 22 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 109711 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Lirilumab and Nivolumab With 5-Azacitidine in Patients With Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS) NCT02599649 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• Nivolumab and Azacitidine With or Without Ipilimumab in Treating Patients With Refractory/Relapsed or Newly Diagnosed Acute Myeloid Leukemia NCT02397720 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Nivolumab in AML in Remission at High Risk for Relapse NCT02532231 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Phase I Study to Assess the Tolerability and Efficacy of Nivolumab in Patients With Hematologic Malignancies NCT02985554 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
• Single Agent and Combined Inhibition After Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplant NCT02846376 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.