Phase 2a ID93 + GLA-SE Vaccine Trial in TB Patients After Treatment Completion
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2017-01-31, after 2015-06-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: negativepulmonarypregnancybreastsubjects with
Phrases that lowered it: vaccineevaluate theimmunogenicityto evaluateasthma -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 11 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 5 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 60 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 11 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety and Immunogenicity of a Candidate Tuberculosis (TB) Vaccine in Adults With TB Disease NCT01424501 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials terminated
- MTBVAC Study in Adults With and Without Latent Tuberculosis Infection in South Africa NCT02933281 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- A Phase I Study of Safety & Immunogenicity of AERAS-456 in HIV-Neg. Adults Treated for Drug-susceptible Pulmonary TB NCT02375698 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- Phase 1 ID93 + GLA-SE Vaccine Trial in Healthy Adult Volunteers NCT01599897 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- Phase 1 ID93 + GLA-SE Vaccine Trial in BCG-Vaccinated Healthy Adult Volunteers NCT01927159 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.