Efficacy of Tacrolimus in Adults With Facial Non-segmental Vitiligo - VITAC
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (35 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-09-30, after 2016-02-23 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjectonsetwomenof signedprogressive
Phrases that lowered it: topicalfaceareadermatitisatopic -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 49 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 138 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 138 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 17.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 49 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 35142 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 6276 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 93.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 24.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- tacrolimus
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Maintenance Treatment of Non Segmental Vitiligo With Tacrolimus Ointment 0.1% Versus Control NCT01841008 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials terminated
- Study to Evaluate Adverse Events and Change in Disease Activity With Oral Tablets of Upadacitinib in Adult Participants With Non-Segmental Vitiligo NCT04927975 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
- A Clinical Study of MK-6194 for the Treatment of Vitiligo (MK-6194-007) NCT06113328 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
- A Study of INCB018424 Phosphate Cream in Subjects With Vitiligo NCT03099304 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- Afamelanotide and Narrow-Band Ultraviolet B (NB-UVB) Light in the Treatment of Nonsegmental Vitiligo NCT01382589 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.