A Trial of Tocilizumab in ALS Subjects
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-07-11, after 2015-11-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-07-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellactivecellsdlpatient
Phrases that lowered it: screeninginvestigatorvisitproductseffect -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 4 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 10558 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2648 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 96.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 11.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, metabolic
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- tocilizumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Dose-Escalation, Safety and Pharmacokinetic Study of IC14 in Motor Neurone Disease NCT03487263 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
- HERV-K Suppression Using Antiretroviral Therapy in Volunteers With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) NCT02437110 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
- Tocilizumab in the Treatment of Refractory Polymyositis and Dermatomyositis NCT02043548 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- Ofatumumab Subcutaneous Administration in Subjects With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis NCT01457924 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
- A Study of VRG50635 in Participants With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) NCT06215755 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.