Trial to Compare NNC0123-0000-0338 in a Tablet Formulation and Insulin Glargine in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Currently Treated With Oral Antidiabetic Therapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: type diabeteswith typemetformintherapytreated
  Phrases that lowered it: both inclusivetabletthis trialtrial ismass index
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 77 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 555 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 85448 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 75.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 14791 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Comparison of Two NN5401 Formulations Versus Insulin Glargine, All in Combination With Metformin in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes NCT00614055 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Multiple Dose Trial Investigating the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of NNC0123-0000-0338 in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes NCT01796366 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Comparison of Two NN5401 Formulations Versus Biphasic Insulin Aspart 30, All in Combination With Metformin in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes NCT00613951 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Comparison of NN5401 Versus Insulin Glargine, Both Combined With Metformin Treatment, in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes NCT01045707 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Trial Investigating the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics (the Exposure of the Trial Drug in the Body) and Pharmacodynamics (the Effect of the Investigated Drug on the Body) of Insulin 287 in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes NCT02964104 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.