Effect of LIK066 on Body Weight in Patients With Elevated Body Mass Index

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-04-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 778 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 245 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: type diabetesrandomizationstablechronicsubjects with
  Phrases that lowered it: effectbodyplasmamass indexkg
• Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, metabolic: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Change in Weight After 24 Weeks Treatment With LIK066 in Obese or Overweight Adults NCT03100058 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics (PK) and Pharmacodynamics (PD) Assessment of LIK066 in Healthy Subjects and in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) NCT01407003 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Effects of Carbohydrate in Diet and Supplements on the Gastrointestinal Tolerability of LIK066 NCT03198767 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Effect of LIK066 on Glucose Absorption in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT01915849 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• A Dose-finding Study to Evaluate the Change in Weight After Treatment With LIK066 in Japanese Patients With Obesity NCT03320941 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.