Osteoarthritis of the Knee, Inflammation, and the Effect of Adalimumab (OKINADA)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 7% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (103 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-03-31, after 2015-03-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 28.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: heartsubject hasdiseaseplacebobowel
Phrases that lowered it: kneeosteoarthritisarthritisvisitoa -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 40 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 49183 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 46967 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 28.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 2.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- adalimumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Adalimumab for Inflammatory Osteoarthritis NCT00686439 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
- Phase III Study on the Safety and Efficacy of a Single Intra-articular Administration of JTA-004 in Symptomatic Knee Osteoarthritis NCT04333160 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
- Patient-Reported and Radiographic Outcomes in Evaluating Lorecivivint (SM04690) for the Treatment of Knee Osteoarthritis NCT03928184 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of AMZ001 for the Treatment of Knee Osteoarthritis Symptoms NCT06693648 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- Safety and Bone Health Study of SM04690 for the Treatment of Moderately to Severely Symptomatic Knee Osteoarthritis NCT03727022 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.