Reducing the Residual Reservoir of HIV-1 Infected Cells in Patients Receiving Antiretroviral Therapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (96 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 43.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 594 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 171 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartinterferondiseaseassess theto assess
  Phrases that lowered it: hiv infectedparticipantsparticipanthiv rnacopies
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Effect of The HDAC Inhibitor Panobinostat on HIV-1 Expression in Patients on Suppressive HAART NCT01680094 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• LRAs United as a Novel Anti-HIV Strategy. NCT03525730 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Romidepsin and the Therapeutic Vaccine Vacc-4x for Reduction of the Latent HIV-1 Reservoir NCT02092116 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess Adverse Events and How Intravenous (IV) or Subcutaneous (SC) ABBV-382 Moves Through the Body of Adult Participants With Human Immuno-Deficiency Virus (HIV-1) NCT04554966 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• Pilot Peg-Interferon-a2b in Decreasing Viral DNA in HIV NCT01935089 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.