Vorapaxar Study for Maturation of AV Fistulae for Hemodialysis Access

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-10-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: hemodialysisto determineplacebodetermine ifrandomization
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluatepatientsinhibitorsefficacy
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 16.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 30 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Vonapanitase (PRT-201) Administered Immediately After Radiocephalic Arteriovenous Fistula(AVF) Creation in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) (PATENCY-2) NCT02414841 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Local Tolerability of Topically Applied Heparin on the Suitability of Newly Constructed Primary Arteriovenous Fistulas in Patients Planned for Haemodialysis NCT01382888 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated
• Determine the Safety/Efficacy of Ticagrelor for Maintaining Patency of Arterio-Venous Fistulae Created for Hemodialysis NCT02335099 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• An Efficacy and Safety Study of SRM003 in the Treatment of Subjects Undergoing Creation of an Arteriovenous Fistula to Facilitate Hemodialysis Access NCT01806545 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• A Study of PRT-201 Administered Immediately After Arteriovenous Fistula Creation in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease NCT01305824 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.