Efficacy and Safety Study of RAGWITEK™ (MK-3641) in Children With Ragweed-Induced Rhinoconjunctivitis With or Without Asthma (MK-3641-008)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-11-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationchronicsymptomaticuncontrolledprior
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmaallergenrhinitispollenrhinoconjunctivitis
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1096 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 62.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 116 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 141524 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 4 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 37037 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 17 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Long-Term Safety of Ragweed (Ambrosia Artemisiifolia) Sublingual Tablet in Adults With a History of Ragweed-Induced Rhinoconjunctivitis With or Without Asthma (Study P05233)(COMPLETED) NCT00783198 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Study of Ragweed (Ambrosia Artemisiifolia) Allergy Immunotherapy Tablet in Adults With Ragweed Allergies (P05751) NCT01469182 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study Of Short Ragweed Pollen Sublingual-Oral Immunotherapy NCT01353079 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Safety Study of Ragweed Allergy Immunotherapy Tablet in Subjects 50 Years of Age and Older (Study P06081) NCT00978029 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Long-Term Safety of Ragweed (Ambrosia Artemisiifolia) Sublingual Tablet (SCH 39641) in Adults With a History of Ragweed-Induced Rhinoconjunctivitis With or Without Asthma (Study P05234) NCT00770315 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.