Psoriasis-Arthritis & Bone Program
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 24% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (81 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-09-30, after 2015-05-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: randomizationtherapycarcinomadefinedcell
Phrases that lowered it: psoriasistopicalmoderatesingleto severe -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 26.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 20 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 91.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 42 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 26.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 20 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 111 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 90 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 91.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 1.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- dermatology, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- secukinumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Secukinumab Dosage Optimisation in Partial Responders With Moderate to Severe Plaque-type Psoriasis NCT02474069 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- Effect of Secukinumab in the Treatment of Psoriatic Arthritis NCT02854163 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
- Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics, and Efficacy of Repeat Doses of GSK2982772 in Subjects With Psoriasis NCT02776033 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Benefit and Safety of GSK2982772 in Moderate to Severe Psoriasis Participants NCT04316585 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
- Study to Demonstrate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of an Intravenous Regimen of Secukinumab Compared to Placebo in Subjects With Active axSpA NCT04156620 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.