A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of AZD9977 After Single Ascending Doses to Healthy Males

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ascendingmsplacebosafety tolerabilityventricular
  Phrases that lowered it: healthysingleopen labelmmhgpharmacokinetics
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1316 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 186 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Assess the Pharmacodynamic Effect of Single Doses of AZD9977 in Healthy Male Subjects NCT02532998 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Single Oral Dose Study to Evaluate Four Different Formulations of AZD9977 and the Effect of Food in Healthy Male Subjects NCT03450759 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of AZD5718 After Single and Multiple Ascending Dose Administration to Healthy Male Subjects NCT02632526 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Reaction of Body for Four Different Formulations of AZD9977 (Part A) and Influence of Food and Lower Dose of a Selected Formulation (Part B) in Healthy Male Subjects NCT03804645 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• Multiple-ascending Dose Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of AZD9977 in Healthy Male Subjects NCT03435276 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.