Efficacy and Safety Study of QVA149 in COPD Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 4% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-09-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lung cancerpatientefficacy ofactiveand tolerability
  Phrases that lowered it: copdchronic obstructivepulmonary diseaseobstructive pulmonarybronchodilator
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 794 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 70.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 242 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety Study of Indacaterol Maleate/Glycopyrronium Bromide in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Patients. NCT02487498 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• QVA149 Versus Fluticasone/Salmeterol in Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT01315249 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A 12 Week Treatment, Multi-center, Randomized, Double-blind, Parallel-group, Placebo and Active Controlled Study to Assess the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of Indacaterol Maleate / Glycopyrronium Bromide in COPD Patients With Moderate to Severe Airflow Limitation. NCT01727141 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Glycopyrronium/Formoterol Fumarate Fixed-dose Combination Relative to Umeclidinium/Vilanterol Fixed-dose Combination Over 24 Weeks in Patients With Moderate to Very Severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease NCT03162055 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• A 26-week Treatment Randomized, Double-blind, Double Dummy Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of QVA149 NCT01709903 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.