Palbociclib in Combination With Fulvestrant or Letrozole in Patients With ER+, HER2- Advanced Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 30% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticadvancedwomeneffectsbreast cancer
  Phrases that lowered it: to investigateopen labelefficacytabletstrial to
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 82.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study in Women With Advanced Breast Cancer Receiving Palbociclib With AI or Fulvestrant NCT02894398 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Pharmacokinetics of Giredestrant Plus Palbociclib Compared With Anastrozole Plus Palbociclib for Postmenopausal Women With Estrogen Receptor-Positive and HER2-Negative Untreated Early Breast Cancer (coopERA Breast Cancer) NCT04436744 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Molecular Mechanisms of Resistance and Sensitivity to Palbociclib Re-challenge in ER+ mBC NCT03184090 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• PALbociclib Rechallenge in horMone Receptor-posItive/HER2- Negative Advanced Breast Cancer (PALMIRA) NCT03809988 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Amcenestrant (SAR439859) Plus Palbociclib as First Line Therapy for Patients With ER (+) HER2(-) Advanced Breast Cancer NCT04478266 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.