A Phase 3 Evaluation of Daclatasvir and Asunaprevir in Treatment-naive Subjects With Chronic Hepatitis C Genotype 1b Infection

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (876 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cells000carcinomaconfirmedinfection
  Phrases that lowered it: inclusivevisitscreeningkgbmi
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 90 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase III Hallmark DUAL: ASV+DCV (Nulls/Partials, Intolerants/Ineligibles. Naives) NCT01581203 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• UNITY 3: A Japanese Phase 3 Study of a Daclatasvir/Asunaprevir/BMS-791325 in Subjects With Genotype 1 Chronic Hepatitis C NCT02123654 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Study of a Daclatasvir/Asunaprevir/BMS-791325 Fixed Dose Combination (FDC) in Subjects With Chronic Hepatitis C Genotype 1 NCT02170727 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Study of the Combination Daclatasvir (60 mg), Sofosbuvir (400 mg) and Ribavirin (Weight-based Dosing) for 12 or 16 Weeks in Subjects With Genotype 3 Chronic HCV Infection With or Without Prior Treatment Experience and Advanced Fibrosis or Compensated Cirrhosis NCT02319031 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Daclatasvir (BMS-790052) Plus Standard of Care (Pegylated-interferon Alpha and Ribavirin) NCT00874770 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.