Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Nintedanib (BIBF 1120) + Prednisone Taper in Patients With Radiation Pneumonitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-04-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: radiationlungmetastasesto determinebrain
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theand safetygoodefficacy andto evaluate
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 108 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 401 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 102895 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 22232 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 72.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Nintedanib Compared With Placebo in Treating Against Radiation-Induced Pneumonitis in Patients With Non-small Cell Lung Cancer That Cannot Be Removed by Surgery and Are Undergoing Chemoradiation Therapy NCT02452463 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
• Nintedanib Twice Daily vs Placebo in Patients Diagnosed With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) NCT01979952 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Nintedanib Co-administered With Sildenafil in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Patients With Advanced Lung Function Impairment NCT02802345 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Nintedanib in Lung Transplant Recipients With Bronchiolitis Obliterans Syndrome Grade 0p-1-2 NCT03283007 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Nintedanib in Patients With Progressive Fibrosing Interstitial Lung Disease (PF-ILD) NCT02999178 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.