Pembrolizumab in Subjects With Incurable Platinum-Refractory Germ Cell Tumors

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-01-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellchemotherapymetastaticcancertherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: trialinfluenzamkvaccinessubjects
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 33.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 76.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 1921 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pembrolizumab for the Treatment of Recurrent High Grade Neuroendocrine Carcinoma NCT03190213 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• Pembrolizumab in Patients With Poor-Prognosis Carcinoma of Unknown Primary Site (CUP) NCT03391973 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of ASP1650, a Monoclonal Antibody Targeting Claudin 6 (CLDN6), in Male Subjects With Incurable Platinum Refractory Germ Cell Tumors NCT03760081 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab With or Without Radiation in Patients With Recurrent or Metastatic Adenoid Cystic Carcinoma NCT03087019 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Nivolumab and Temozolomide in Treating Patients With Recurrent or Refractory Small-Cell Lung Cancer or Advanced Neuroendocrine Cancer NCT03728361 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.