Minimal Islet Transplant at Diabetes Onset
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 22% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (220 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-12-31, after 2015-04-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: transplantationcelltherapydlbreast
Phrases that lowered it: kgbodymmhgparticipantsmass index -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 2402 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 45 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 4 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2402 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 547 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 94.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 19.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic, immunology, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- sirolimus
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Omental Islet Transplant NCT02821026 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
- Treatment of Type I Diabetes by Islet Transplantation Into the Gastric Submucosa Study Protocol NCT02402439 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
- Caspase Inhibition in Islet Transplantation NCT01653899 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
- IMCY-0098 Proof of ACtion in Type 1 Diabetes (IMPACT Study) NCT04524949 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials terminated
- Allogeneic Islet Cells Transplanted Onto the Omentum NCT02213003 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.