Panobinostat, Gemcitabine Hydrochloride, Busulfan, and Melphalan Before Stem Cell Transplant in Treating Patients With Refractory or Relapsed Multiple Myeloma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 32% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-06-03, after 2015-09-14 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-06-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellscardiacventriculartherapyheart
Phrases that lowered it: myelomapatients withfev1transplantstem cell -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 27.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 31.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 173 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 550 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 7 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 550 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 27.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 173 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 7 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 26003 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 5897 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 96.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 31.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, cardiovascular, immunology, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- alanine, busulfan, butane, gemcitabine, melphalan, panobinostat, phenylalanine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Panobinostat/Velcade in Multiple Myeloma NCT00891033 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials terminated
- Panobinostat and Carfilzomib in Treating Participants With Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT01301807 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
- Panobinostat (LBH589): Multiple Myeloma - Autologous Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation (HCT) NCT02722941 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
- Study of the Combination of Panobinostat & Carfilzomib in Patients With Relapsed &/or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT01549431 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of Panobinostat in Patients With Relapsed and Bortezomib-refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT01083602 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.