Bioavailability of BMS-626529 in Healthy Subjects From Prototype Low Dose Extended Release Formulations (Part 1) and Prototype Extended Release Multi-particulate Formulations (Part 2) of BMS-663068 Relative to 600 mg Extended Release Tablet

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 2% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (776 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-11-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: bmsplacebofrom normalacute24 hours
  Phrases that lowered it: healthytabletbioavailabilityreleaseformulations
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: health services research (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 37 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Effect of Food on the Pharmacokinetics of BMS-626529 NCT02164045 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Relative Bioavailability of BMS-626529 Administered as BMS-663068 From 150mg Low-dose Extended-release Tablets Compared to 600mg Reference Extended-release Tablets in Healthy Subjects NCT02859259 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• A Study of BMS-986171 in Healthy People to Assess Safety, to Measure Blood Levels of Drug, and to Find Out What the Drug Does to the Body NCT02538874 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Randomized, Placebo-Controlled, Double-Blind, Ascending Single and Multiple Dose Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of BMS-963272 in Healthy Subjects NCT02327273 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Safety and Tolerability Study of BMS-986177 in Healthy Subjects NCT02608970 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.