A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy of MEDI7510 in Older Adults
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 3% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2016-11-07, after 2015-09-29 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-11-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancertreatedbreastmelanomagrade
Phrases that lowered it: vaccinereceiptinfluenzavaccinationseason -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 36 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 60 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 144 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 60 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 99 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 144 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 36 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Immunogenicity of MEDI7510 in Older Adults NCT02289820 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Safety of the Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccine MEDI7510 in Older Adults NCT02115815 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- MEDI-557 Adult Dosing NCT01562938 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Immunogenicity of Quadrivalent LAIV (MEDI8662) in Adults 18 to 49 Years of Age NCT00952705 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
- A Phase 2a to Evaluate the Safety of MEDI8852 in Adults With Uncomplicated Influenza NCT02603952 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.