First in Human Study of AL-704; Single Dose, Food Effect in Healthy Volunteers; Multiple Doses in Chronic Hepatitis C

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-11-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject hassafety tolerabilitythe subjectsubject mustsubjects with
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyhealthysingle doseat screeningfed
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 6 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• First in Human Study of AL-335; Single Dose, Food Effect in Healthy Volunteers; Multiple Doses in Chronic Hepatitis C Genotype 1 NCT02339207 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A First in Human Study of AL-611 in Healthy Volunteers and Patients With Hepatitis C Virus Infection NCT03253471 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials terminated
• A First Time in Human Study to Assess GSK2336805 in Healthy Volunteers and Single Doses in Chronically Infected Hepatitis C Patients. NCT01277692 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• A First Time in Human Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Antiviral Activity of Single and Repeat Doses of GSK2485852 in Chronically Infected Hepatitis C Subjects NCT01332552 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials terminated
• Study to Assess the Safety, Pharmacokinetics, and Antiviral Activity of Repeat Doses of GSK2878175 in Subjects With Chronic Hepatitis C. NCT02014571 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.