The Study of an Investigational Drug, Patisiran (ALN-TTR02), for the Treatment of Transthyretin (TTR)-Mediated Amyloidosis in Participants Who Have Already Been Treated With ALN-TTR02 (Patisiran)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-11-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: completedlong termextension studyterm safetythe long
  Phrases that lowered it: visitefficacyevaluate theto evaluatesafety
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 12 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 10 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 85 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• APOLLO: The Study of an Investigational Drug, Patisiran (ALN-TTR02), for the Treatment of Transthyretin (TTR)-Mediated Amyloidosis NCT01960348 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• The Study of ALN-TTR02 (Patisiran) for the Treatment of Transthyretin (TTR)-Mediated Amyloidosis in Patients Who Have Already Been Treated With ALN-TTR02 (Patisiran) NCT01961921 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Safety and Tolerability of Patisiran (ALN-TTR02) in Transthyretin (TTR) Amyloidosis NCT01617967 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Extension Study Assessing Long Term Safety and Efficacy of IONIS-TTR Rx in Familial Amyloid Polyneuropathy (FAP) NCT02175004 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Patisiran in Patients With Hereditary Transthyretin-mediated Amyloidosis (hATTR Amyloidosis) Disease Progression Post-Liver Transplant NCT03862807 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.