Study of Isatuximab Combined With Bortezomib + Cyclophosphamide + Dexamethasone (VCD) and Bortezomib + Lenalidomide + Dexamethasone (VRD) in Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma (MM) Non Eligible for Transplant or No Intent for Immediate Transplantation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-01-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: in combinationtransplantationcombination withtumortransplant
  Phrases that lowered it: to evaluateevaluate theefficacypharmacokineticsafety
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 816 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 60 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 204915 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 63261 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• SAR650984, Pomalidomide and Dexamethasone in Combination in RRMM Patients NCT02283775 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Pharmacokinetics, and Efficacy of Isatuximab in Patients With Multiple Myeloma NCT02514668 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Isatuximab in Combination With Cemiplimab in Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma (RRMM) Patients NCT03194867 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Phase 1/2 Dose Escalation and Efficacy Study of Anti-CD38 Monoclonal Antibody in Patients With Selected CD38+ Hematological Malignancies NCT01084252 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• Study Evaluating ABT-199 in Participants With Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT01794520 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.