CLG561 Proof-of-Concept Study as a Monotherapy and in Combination With LFG316 in Subjects With Geographic Atrophy (GA)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-12-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: macularintravitrealin subjectsdegenerationeye
  Phrases that lowered it: diseaseshypertensionwomenthe studycomponent
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 61 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Safety, Tolerability, and Evidence of Activity of FCFD4514S Administered Monthly or Every Other Month to Patients With Geographic Atrophy NCT01229215 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Intravitreal LFG316 in Patients With Age-related Macular Degeneration (AMD) NCT01527500 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• A Multicenter, Proof-Of-Concept Study Of Intravitreal AL-78898A In Patients With Geographic Atrophy (GA) Associated With Age-Related Macular Degeneration (AMD) NCT01603043 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials terminated
• A Study of the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Immunogenicity of Intravitreal Injections of FCFD4514S in Patients With Geographic Atrophy NCT00973011 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• A Study Investigating the Safety and Efficacy of Lampalizumab Intravitreal Injections in Participants With Geographic Atrophy Secondary to Age-Related Macular Degeneration NCT02247531 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.