A Trial of Pessary and Progesterone for Preterm Prevention in Twin Gestation With a Short Cervix
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 22% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-02-18, after 2015-11-13 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-02-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancergreaterrandomizationriskpatient
Phrases that lowered it: examinationtrialto evaluateevaluate thevaginal -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 30% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 63.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- not given (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 10 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 30% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 5607 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1092 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 63.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 2.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- progesterone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- PREGNANT Short Cervix Trial NCT00615550 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- Arabin Pessary Combine With Vaginal Progesterone Compare With Vaginal Progesterone Alone to Prevent Preterm Delivery in Singleton Pregnancies NCT03052270 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials terminated
- Progesterone Vaginal Pessary for Prevention of Preterm Twin Birth NCT02350231 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Efficacy Study of a Cervical Pessary Containing Progesterone for the Prevention of Preterm Delivery NCT02225353 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- Progestagens for the Tertiary Prophylaxis of Preterm Delivery NCT01178788 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.