Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of ISIS 443139 in Participants With Early Manifest Huntington's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (95 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-11-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: safety tolerabilityascendingtolerability pharmacokineticssmallthe safety
  Phrases that lowered it: participantmultipleevaluate theto evaluatepharmacokinetics
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 25 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 25 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 9 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of RO7234292 (ISIS 443139) in Huntington's Disease Patients Who Participated in Prior Investigational Studies of RO7234292 (ISIS 443139) NCT03342053 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Intrathecally Administered RO7234292 (RG6042) in Participants With Manifest Huntington's Disease NCT03761849 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of RO7234292 (RG6042) in CSF and Plasma, and Safety and Tolerability Following Intrathecal Administration in Patients With Huntington's Disease NCT04000594 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Study of WVE-003 in Patients With Huntington's Disease NCT05032196 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of IONIS-MAPTRx in Patients With Mild Alzheimer's Disease NCT03186989 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.