The BASE Study: Bicarbonate Administration to Stabilize Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (eGFR)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (169 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationheartfailurekidneychronic
  Phrases that lowered it: clinical trial20investigatorper dayjudged
• Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 20662 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Sodium Bicarbonate Supplementation in Chronic Kidney Disease Evaluation of Dose Response, Safety and Beneficial Effects NCT00888290 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• A Study to Learn About How Well BAY3283142 Works and Its Safety in Participants With Chronic Kidney Disease NCT06522997 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• Bardoxolone Methyl Evaluation in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease and Type 2 Diabetes NCT01351675 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Test the Effect of Different Doses of Avenciguat (BI 685509) on Kidney Function in People With Chronic Kidney Disease NCT04736628 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• A Study to Learn How the Study Treatment BAY3283142 Taken as Single Dose by Mouth Moves Into, Through, and Out of the Body, How Safe it is, and How it Affects the Body in Participants With Reduced Kidney Function Compared to Participants With Normal Kidney Function of Similar Age, Gender, and Weight NCT05515432 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.