A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Efficacy and Changes in Induced Sputum and Blood Biomarkers Following Daily Repeat Doses of Inhaled GSK2269557 in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Subjects With Acute Exacerbation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-06-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject hassubject isthe subjectsubjects withmajor
  Phrases that lowered it: copdmalescreeningfev1label
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 2177 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Efficacy Study of GSK2269557 Added to Standard Care in Subjects With an Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease NCT02294734 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Dose-Response Relationship of Multiple Doses of GSK2269557 Administered as a Dry Powder to Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Patients NCT02130635 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of Repeat Doses of Inhaled GSK2269557 in Adults With Persistent, Uncontrolled Asthma NCT02567708 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability and Clinical Effect of Danirixin in Adults With Influenza NCT02469298 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• GSK2190915 Neutrophilic Asthma Study NCT01471665 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.