Evaluation of Memantine Versus Placebo on Ischemic Stroke Outcome

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: kidneyischemicinjuryplacebostroke
  Phrases that lowered it: the effecteffect ofaiminvestigatetrial
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 88.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Investigation of Memantine in the Treatment of Memory, Concentration or Attention Problems NCT01261741 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Local Study of Akatinol Memantine in VaD in Russia NCT03986424 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• Memantine for the Treatment of Social Deficits in Youth With Disorders of Impaired Social Interactions NCT03553875 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Efficacy of Sequential Therapy With Mexidol® in Patients With Chronic Cerebral Ischemia NCT06834490 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Treatment Evaluation of Acute Stroke for Using in Regenerative Cell Elements NCT02961504 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.