Extension Study of APD334-003 in Patients With Moderately to Severely Active Ulcerative Colitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-11-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: extensionto determinedetermine whethercompletedstudy
  Phrases that lowered it: participantspatientscolitiswho did52 weeks
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy of Etrasimod (APD334) in Patients With Ulcerative Colitis NCT02447302 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• Oral Etrasimod Versus Placebo for the Treatment of Moderately to Severely Active Ulcerative Colitis in Adult Japanese Participants (ELEVATE UC 40 JAPAN) NCT04706793 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Etrasimod Versus Placebo for the Treatment of Moderately Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT04607837 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Safety, Efficacy, and Tolerability Study of ASP3291 in Patients With Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT01612039 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Long-term Safety of Etrolizumab in Participants With Moderate to Severe Ulcerative Colitis NCT01461317 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.