A Study of LY3023414 in Japanese Participants With Advanced Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2017-02-09, after 2015-09-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-02-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancertherapyadvancedmetastaticsolid
Phrases that lowered it: participantsbodyevaluate thesafety ofto evaluate -
Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 139 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 970 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 20 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 970 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 139 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of LY2835219 in Japanese Participants With Advanced Cancer NCT02014129 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- Study of LY2157299 in Japanese Participants With Cancer NCT01722825 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY3023414 in Participants With Advanced Cancer NCT01655225 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY2875358 in Japanese Participants With Advanced Cancer NCT01602289 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY3435151 in Participants With Solid Tumors NCT04099277 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.