Comparing Pharmacodynamic and Pharmacokinetic Properties of Insulin Degludec and Insulin Glargine 300 U/mL at Steady-state Conditions in Subjects With Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 3% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (816 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-04-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: type diabetesdiabetes mellitusdouble blindmultiplewith type
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticperiodbodysubjectsboth inclusive
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 74 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 563 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 90884 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 18237 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Comparison of Insulin Degludec With Insulin Glargine in Subjects With Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus NCT01868529 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• A Trial Investigating the Pharmacodynamic and Pharmacokinetic Properties of Insulin Degludec/Insulin Aspart 15 in Subjects With Type 1 Diabetes NCT01773798 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• A Trial Investigating the Pharmacodynamic Properties of NN5401 in Subjects With Type 1 Diabetes NCT01590836 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Comparison of IDegAsp (Inclusive Three Explorative Formulations) With Insulin Degludec and Insulin Aspart Separately Injected in Subjects With Type 1 Diabetes NCT01868568 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• A Trial Comparing the Safety and Efficacy of Insulin Degludec and Insulin Glargine, With or Without OADs in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes NCT02030600 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.