The Effect of Regular Naltrexone Dosing on Disordered Gamblers
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (145 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-05-26, after 2016-04-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-05-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: evidencefailurekidneyheartbrain
Phrases that lowered it: the effectinvestigateeffect ofor similarexamination -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 34.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 50 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 118 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 13.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 50 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 4257 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3080 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 34.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 5.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- naltrexone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Investigation of Naltrexone for Pathological Gambling NCT01057862 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
- Topiramate Trial for Pathological Gamblers NCT01843699 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- D1 and D2 Dopamine Receptors in Gambling and Amphetamine Reinforcement NCT02203786 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Clinical Study to Determine if Ecopipam Can Reduce Urges to Gamble NCT01215357 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
- Sweet Preference and Alcohol Craving NCT01296646 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.