A Dose Escalation Study of Carfilzomib Taken With Thalidomide and Dexamethasone in Relapsed AL Amyloidosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-10-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: organchemotherapyof studytransplantamyloid
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantsingleopenefficacy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 48 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 135804 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 26614 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Trial for Systemic Light-chain (AL) Amyloidosis NCT01277016 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Daratumumab Therapy for Patients With Refractory or Relapsed AL Amyloidosis NCT02816476 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Study of Dexamethasone Plus IXAZOMIB (MLN9708) or Physicians Choice of Treatment in Relapsed or Refractory Systemic Light Chain (AL) Amyloidosis NCT01659658 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials terminated
• Bortezomib and Dexamethasone Followed by High-Dose Melphalan and Stem Cell Transplantation for Primary (AL) Amyloidosis NCT01083316 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Cyclophosphamide, Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone (CLD) for Previously Treated Patients With AL Amyloidosis NCT00607581 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.