A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of ASN-002 in Adult Patients With Low-risk Nodular Basal Cell Carcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellcarcinomametastatictumortherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsand safetyalcoholefficacy andsafety of
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 27267 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy Evaluation of AIV001 in Nonmelanoma Skin Cancer of the Low Risk Basal Cell Carcinoma Subtype NCT04470726 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Study Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of Microneedle-mediated Delivery of Doxorubicin (D-MNA) in Patients With Nodular Basal Cell Carcinoma. NCT06608238 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Trial of Topical Resiquimod Gel (0.06%) in Patients With Nodular Basal Cell Carcinoma NCT01808950 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials terminated
• Open Label, Dose Escalation Study for the Safety and Efficacy of STP705 in Adult Patients With Basal Cell Carcinoma NCT04669808 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of ASN-002 Combined With a Hedgehog Pathway Inhibitor NCT04416516 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.