Choroideremia Gene Therapy Clinical Trial

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: equal tostudy eyeor equalpatientsgene
  Phrases that lowered it: 20maleclinical trialparticipateddisorder
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Gene Therapy for Blindness Caused by Choroideremia NCT01461213 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• A Safety Study of Retinal Gene Therapy for Choroideremia With Administration of BIIB111 NCT03507686 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• Safety and Dose-escalation Study of AAV2-hCHM in Participants With CHM (Choroideremia) Gene Mutations NCT02341807 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Trial of Subretinal Injection of (rAAV2-VMD2-hMERTK) NCT01482195 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial of Gene Therapy for the Treatment of Leber Congenital Amaurosis (LCA) NCT02781480 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.