A Study of Prexasertib (LY2606368) With Chemotherapy and Radiation in Participants With Head and Neck Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-01-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerheadsquamous cellmetastaticlocally
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantssafety ofinvestigate theto investigate
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 143 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 43964 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 1 Study in Participants With Advanced Cancer NCT01115790 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• A Study to Determine the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Preliminary Efficacy of ABBV-368 Plus Tilsotolimod and Other Therapy Combinations in Participants With Recurrent/Metastatic Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT04196283 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• Phase 1b Safety Study of Xevinapant, Weekly Cisplatin, and RT in Participants With Unresected LA SCCHN (HyperlynX) NCT06056310 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated
• Phase II Trial Evaluating the Efficacy of Palbociclib in Combination With Carboplatin for the Treatment of Unresectable Recurrent or Metastatic Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT03194373 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Effects of Multiple Study Drug Regimens in Subjects With Newly Diagnosed Locally Advanced Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT03818542 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.