Prophylactic Topical Agents in Reducing Radiation-Induced Dermatitis in Patients With Non-inflammatory Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: radiationtumorbreastchemotherapycancer
  Phrases that lowered it: topicalsubjectspsoriasisdermatitis20
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 55.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: supportive care (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 2136 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Curcumin for the Prevention of Radiation-induced Dermatitis in Breast Cancer Patients NCT01042938 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Barrier Film vs. Standard Skin Care in Preventing Dermatitis in Women With Breast Cancer Receiving Radiation NCT01762020 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• LUT014 for the Treatment of Radiation Induced Dermatitis in Breast Cancer Patients NCT04261387 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Study of APN201 (Liposomal Recombinant Human Cu/Zn-Superoxide Dismutase) for the Prevention of Radiation-induced Dermatitis in Women With Breast Cancer NCT01513278 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• RTA 408 Lotion in Patients at Risk for Radiation Dermatitis - PRIMROSE NCT02142959 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.