Validation of Macimorelin as a Test for Adult Growth Hormone Deficiency
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2016-11-29, after 2015-12-03 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-11-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: type diabetesqtuntreatedqtcinjury
Phrases that lowered it: healthycrossoveropen labellabel randomizedadult -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: diagnostic (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- diagnostic (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 29 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 13.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, musculoskeletal, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- macimorelin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Research Study of How Well Macimorelin Works to Find Out if Children Have a Lack of Growth Hormone and How Safe it is NCT04786873 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- A Study of GS3-007a for Oral Suspension in the Diagnosis of Adult Growth Hormone Deficiency (AGHD) NCT07259564 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials terminated
- A Trial to Compare the Efficacy and Safety of Once-weekly Lonapegsomatropin With Placebo and a Daily Somatropin Product in Adults With Growth Hormone Deficiency NCT04615273 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- A Clinical Study in AGHD to Assess Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of GX-H9 NCT02946606 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- Diurnal Variation of Exogenous Peptides (GH Puls/Jurgita I) NCT01090778 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.