First-line Treatment of Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer With Nab-paclitaxel and Gemcitabine
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-05-31, after 2016-12-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 28.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: paclitaxelcancercoronaryof studycell
Phrases that lowered it: accordingdrugslineseverehepatic -
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 7 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9419 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 10 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 7 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 28.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 10 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 46535 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 9419 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 95.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 24.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- gemcitabine, paclitaxel
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Nab-Paclitaxel + Cisplatin + Gemcitabine in Untreated Metastatic Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma NCT03915444 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
- Nab-Paclitaxel Plus Gemcitabine Versus Gemcitabine For The First Line Treatment of Pancreas Cancer NCT03807999 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
- Nab-paclitaxel (Abraxane), Gemcitabine, and Capecitabine (Xeloda) for Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma NCT01161186 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate Bi-weekly Dosing of Gemcitabine Plus Nab-Paclitaxel to Treat Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer NCT01851174 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
- Biological Effect of Nab-paclitaxel Combined to Gemcitabine in Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer NCT02174887 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.