Metformin for Preventing Frailty in High-risk Older Adults
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-02-07, after 2016-04-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-02-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: heartdldiseasepatientmajor
Phrases that lowered it: diabetesmetformininsulinhealthsubjects -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 30 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 63.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Maximum age: 90 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 35020 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 149395 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 65 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 90 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 95 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 30 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 149395 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 35020 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 63.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 8.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- metformin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Antecedent Metabolic Health and Metformin Aging Study NCT04264897 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Diet and Exercise Plus Metformin to Treat Frailty in Obese Seniors NCT04221750 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Metformin and Muscle in Insulin-resistant Older Veterans NCT01804049 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- Metformin in Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment NCT00620191 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
- Effect of Metformin on Frailty in 12 Subjects NCT03451006 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.