Two-part Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacodynamic and -Kinetic Study of Inhaled AZD8871 in Asthmatic and COPD Subjects

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 4% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (355 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjects withmsplacebosubjects whoacute
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmacopdfev1at screeningsmoking
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 40.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 130 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1333 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 186 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 18 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 13508 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Two-part Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Study of LAS190792 in Patients With Asthma and COPD NCT02059434 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Pharmacokinetics (PK), Safety and Tolerability Study of Inhaled AZD8871 NCT02971293 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• A Single Inhalation Dose Study to Assess Efficacy, Pharmacokinetics (PK), Safety and Tolerability of AZD8871 in Patients With Long-term Lung Diseases. NCT03645434 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A 24-week Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of GSK573719/GW642444 125/25 mcg and 62.5/25mcg Inhalation Powder Compared With Placebo in Subjects With COPD NCT01636713 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• To Compare the Pharmacokinetics of Tiotropium in Subjects With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT01785433 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.