Chemotherapy Alone vs. Chemotherapy + Surgical Resection in Patients With Limited-metastatic Adenocarcinoma of the Stomach or Esophagogastric Junction

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-08-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lymphcancernodechemotherapystage
  Phrases that lowered it: oxaliplatingastricimpairmenthepaticeffect of
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 95903 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 16810 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Surgical Resection Plus Chemotherapy Versus Chemotherapy Alone in Oligometastatic Stage IV Gastric Cancer NCT03042169 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated
• Prospective Randomized Trial Comparing Gastrectomy, Metastasectomy Plus Systemic Therapy Versus Systemic Therapy Alone: GYMSSA Trial NCT00941655 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Docetaxel, Oxaliplatin, Capecitabine, Fluorouracil, and Radiation Therapy in Treating Patients With Locally Advanced Cancer of the Esophagus or Gastroesophageal Junction NCT00938470 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Trial of Xeloda and Oxaliplatin (XELOX) as Neo-adjuvant Chemotherapy Followed by Surgery in Advanced Gastric Cancer Patients With Para-aortic Lymph Node Metastasis NCT02071043 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• NESC: Neoadjuvant Treatment of Gastric Adenocarcinoma NCT01565109 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.