A Randomised Trial to Evaluate Toxicity and Efficacy of 1200mg and 1800mg Rifampicin for Pulmonary Tuberculosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (313 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 25.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chemotherapypatientsminstandardcreatinine
  Phrases that lowered it: trialkginsulinperiodevaluate
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Open-label RCT to Evaluate a New Treatment Regimen for Patients With Multi-drug Resistant Tuberculosis NCT02454205 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• TBTC Study 31: Rifapentine-containing Tuberculosis Treatment Shortening Regimens NCT02410772 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• TBTC Study 29: Rifapentine During Intensive Phase Tuberculosis (TB) Treatment NCT00694629 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Building Evidence for Advancing New Treatment for Rifampicin Resistant Tuberculosis (RR-TB) Comparing a Short Course of Treatment (Containing Bedaquiline, Delamanid and Linezolid) With the Current South African Standard of Care NCT04062201 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Trial of High-Dose Rifampin in Patients With TB NCT01408914 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.