Efficacy and Safety of Alirocumab in Patients With Hypercholesterolemia Not Adequately Controlled With Non-statin Lipid Modifying Therapy or the Lowest Strength of Statin

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-01-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapymg dlprimaryrandomizationpotential participation
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsevaluate theto evaluatescreeningparticipant
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 818 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 64 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 155481 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 70.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 28013 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase III Study To Evaluate Alirocumab in Patients With Hypercholesterolemia Not Treated With a Statin (ODYSSEY CHOICE II) NCT02023879 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Evaluation of Alirocumab in Patients With Heterozygous Familial Hypercholesterolemia or High Cardiovascular Risk Patients With Hypercholesterolemia on Lipid Modifying Therapy (ODYSSEY JAPAN) NCT02107898 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Alirocumab in Addition to Lipid-Modifying Therapy in Patients With High Cardiovascular Risk and Hypercholesterolemia in South Korea and Taiwan NCT02289963 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Evaluation of Alirocumab (SAR236553/REGN727) in Patients With Primary Hypercholesterolemia on Stable Atorvastatin Therapy NCT01288443 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Alirocumab Versus Ezetimibe on Top of Statin in Asia in High Cardiovascular Risk Patients With Hypercholesterolemia NCT02715726 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.