Efficacy and Safety Study of DX-2930 to Prevent Acute Angioedema Attacks in Patients With Type I and Type II HAE

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-04-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: limitof normaltermbilirubinliver
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluateand safetyefficacy andangioedemaexposure
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 21 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 12 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Long-term Safety and Efficacy Study of DX-2930 (SHP643) to Prevent Acute Angioedema Attacks in Patients With Type I and Type II HAE NCT02741596 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• A Double-Blind, Multiple Ascending Dose Study to Assess Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of DX-2930 in Hereditary Angioedema Participants NCT02093923 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of BCX7353 as an Oral Treatment for the Prevention of Attacks in HAE NCT03485911 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of BCX7353 as an Oral Treatment for the Prevention of HAE Attacks in Japan NCT03873116 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Dose-ranging Study of Oral PHA-022121 for Acute Treatment of Angioedema Attacks in Patients With Hereditary Angioedema NCT04618211 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.